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El dólar gana posiciones con respecto a las monedas de alto rendimiento, aunque baja frente al euro y la libra esterlina este lunes, ya que el informe de empleo del viernes ha dejado un importante margen de incertidumbre sobre cuándo podría empezar la Reserva Federal a subir los tipos de interés.To get more news about liteforex, you can visit wikifx.com official website.
El informe de empleo ha sido el más débil de este año, con sólo 194.000 puestos de trabajo no agrícolas creados, muy por debajo de las expectativas. La gran revisión al alza de los datos de agosto suavizó un poco la decepción, pero la remuneración media superó las expectativas, lo que alimenta los temores de que la inflación pueda fortalecerse al mismo tiempo que el crecimiento se ralentiza debido a las limitaciones tanto de las cadenas de suministro mundiales como de los mercados laborales locales. Sin embargo, las cifras no sugieren que la Reserva Federal no vaya a comenzar a reducir sus compras de bonos el mes que viene.
A las 9:10 horas (CET), índice dólar, que sigue la evolución de esta moneda con respecto a una cesta de otras seis divisas principales, se mantiene prácticamente plano en 94,073, tras no poder superar sus máximos de septiembre en respuesta al informe de empleo del viernes. El dólar avanza un 0,4% frente al yen y un 0,3% frente al dólar neozelandés, respaldado por los elevados precios de las materias primas que requieren dólares para su liquidación.
Sin embargo, baja frente a la libra esterlina, tras las declaraciones de dos altos funcionarios del Banco de Inglaterra —entre ellos el Gobernador Andrew Bailey— durante el fin de semana, que señalaron muy claramente que el banco pretende subir los tipos de interés a corto plazo. Las expectativas de inflación han aumentado hasta superar el 4% a cinco años en el Reino Unido, un país que sigue más traumatizado que la mayoría por los recuerdos de la estanflación de los años 70.
Bailey declaró al Yorkshire Post en una entrevista que “obviamente” está “preocupado” por la inflación por encima del objetivo, y ha añadido que: “Va a ser una tarea muy delicada y compleja, así que tenemos que evitar, en cierto modo, que la cosa se enquiste permanentemente, porque eso sería obviamente muy perjudicial”.
Su colega Michael Saunders, por su parte, declaró al Sunday Telegraph que el Reino Unido tendría que prepararse para subidas de tipos “considerablemente más temprano”. El tipo de interés básico del Banco se ha mantenido en el 0,1% desde el inicio de la pandemia.
La libra esterlina sube un 0,4%, hasta máximos de tres meses de 1,1804 frente al euro, y un 0,4% frente al dólar, hasta registrar máximos de un mes en 1,3664 dólares.
Las divisas relacionadas con el petróleo continúan su fuerte repunte, ya que los precios del crudo se mantienen muy por encima de los 80 dólares por barril durante el fin de semana. El rublo ruso registra máximos de 14 meses frente al dólar, hasta el nivel de 71,6724, mientras que el dólar canadiense registra máximos de dos meses tras la publicación de un informe del mercado laboral mucho más sólido el viernes. Canadá creó sólo 157.000 puestos de trabajo en septiembre y ya ha recuperado todos los empleos que destruyó al comienzo de la pandemia.
El volumen de operaciones en los mercados de Estados Unidos será ligeramente escaso con motivo de la festividad del Día de la Raza en Estados Unidos, mientras que los discursos del economista jefe del Banco Central Europeo, Philip Lane, y de Frank Elderson se analizarán en busca de cualquier señal de que el BCE —cada vez más atípico en la tendencia mundial de ajuste de la política monetaria— está empezando a reaccionar ante una mayor presión inflacionaria.
El informe de empleo ha sido el más débil de este año, con sólo 194.000 puestos de trabajo no agrícolas creados, muy por debajo de las expectativas. La gran revisión al alza de los datos de agosto suavizó un poco la decepción, pero la remuneración media superó las expectativas, lo que alimenta los temores de que la inflación pueda fortalecerse al mismo tiempo que el crecimiento se ralentiza debido a las limitaciones tanto de las cadenas de suministro mundiales como de los mercados laborales locales. Sin embargo, las cifras no sugieren que la Reserva Federal no vaya a comenzar a reducir sus compras de bonos el mes que viene.
A las 9:10 horas (CET), índice dólar, que sigue la evolución de esta moneda con respecto a una cesta de otras seis divisas principales, se mantiene prácticamente plano en 94,073, tras no poder superar sus máximos de septiembre en respuesta al informe de empleo del viernes. El dólar avanza un 0,4% frente al yen y un 0,3% frente al dólar neozelandés, respaldado por los elevados precios de las materias primas que requieren dólares para su liquidación.
Sin embargo, baja frente a la libra esterlina, tras las declaraciones de dos altos funcionarios del Banco de Inglaterra —entre ellos el Gobernador Andrew Bailey— durante el fin de semana, que señalaron muy claramente que el banco pretende subir los tipos de interés a corto plazo. Las expectativas de inflación han aumentado hasta superar el 4% a cinco años en el Reino Unido, un país que sigue más traumatizado que la mayoría por los recuerdos de la estanflación de los años 70.
Bailey declaró al Yorkshire Post en una entrevista que “obviamente” está “preocupado” por la inflación por encima del objetivo, y ha añadido que: “Va a ser una tarea muy delicada y compleja, así que tenemos que evitar, en cierto modo, que la cosa se enquiste permanentemente, porque eso sería obviamente muy perjudicial”.
Su colega Michael Saunders, por su parte, declaró al Sunday Telegraph que el Reino Unido tendría que prepararse para subidas de tipos “considerablemente más temprano”. El tipo de interés básico del Banco se ha mantenido en el 0,1% desde el inicio de la pandemia.
La libra esterlina sube un 0,4%, hasta máximos de tres meses de 1,1804 frente al euro, y un 0,4% frente al dólar, hasta registrar máximos de un mes en 1,3664 dólares.
Las divisas relacionadas con el petróleo continúan su fuerte repunte, ya que los precios del crudo se mantienen muy por encima de los 80 dólares por barril durante el fin de semana. El rublo ruso registra máximos de 14 meses frente al dólar, hasta el nivel de 71,6724, mientras que el dólar canadiense registra máximos de dos meses tras la publicación de un informe del mercado laboral mucho más sólido el viernes. Canadá creó sólo 157.000 puestos de trabajo en septiembre y ya ha recuperado todos los empleos que destruyó al comienzo de la pandemia.
El volumen de operaciones en los mercados de Estados Unidos será ligeramente escaso con motivo de la festividad del Día de la Raza en Estados Unidos, mientras que los discursos del economista jefe del Banco Central Europeo, Philip Lane, y de Frank Elderson se analizarán en busca de cualquier señal de que el BCE —cada vez más atípico en la tendencia mundial de ajuste de la política monetaria— está empezando a reaccionar ante una mayor presión inflacionaria.
При этом британский банк Barclays (LON:BARC) сохраняет позитивный взгляд на акции, уверенный в преобладании принципа «альтернативы не существует» (TINA, there is no alternative). Он предвидит период повышения волатильности и снижения доходности на европейском фондовом рынке.To get more news about ids international, you can visit wikifx.com official website.
Но аналитики банка советуют не бояться инфляции и не прибегать к «убежищу» — покупке облигаций, а вместо этого воспользоваться спадом и покупать подешевевшие акции, которые, на их взгляд, более привлекательны, чем облигации.
Отметим, что в сентябре общеевропейский индекс STOXX 600 отметил 7-месячную прибыльную серию после того, как на мировом рынке сложился благоприятный фон для быстрого восстановления экономики на фоне беспрецедентных фискальных и монетарных стимулов.
В обновленной октябрьской стратегии, опубликованной в среду, аналитики Barclays предупредили, что зреет новый экономический цикл, соотношение цены к прибыли по акциям является высоким, а рост прибыли на акцию будет умеренным, в то время как центральные банки становятся все более «ястребиными» в своем настрое. При этом приток средств в управляющие активами фонды в последнее время замедлился. При сокращении соотношения цены к прибыли будущая доходность снизится, по мнению банка, но все же останется положительной.
Глава подразделения европейской стратегии банка Эммануэль Кау заявил, что «по мере увеличения премии за риск доходность с поправкой на него будет снижаться. Тем не менее, мы по-прежнему считаем акции более привлекательными, чем облигации, и полагаем, что следует покупать на спаде».
Он также добавил, что корреляция между облигациями и акциями довольно большая, но при этом облигации кажутся более «оторванными» от фундаментальных экономических показателей, а следовательно, будут более уязвимы перед инфляцией и политическими рисками в четвертом квартале, к каковым относятся энергетический кризис в Европе, COVID-19, экономическая неопределенность в Китае и в отношении потолка госдолга в США.
Кау уверен, что у инвесторов по-прежнему есть порох в пороховницах, учитывая, что денежные рынки (то есть активы под управлением) составляют сегодня $4,5 трлн. Только акции являются тем классом активов, который приносит положительную реальную доходность и имеет тенденцию оставаться на плаву в условиях более высокой инфляции, добавил он.
Говоря конкретно о направлениях для инвестиций, аналитики банка отдают предпочтение европейским акциям, так как они эффективнее высоко оцененных американских. В частности, Кау и его команда сосредотачивают внимание на тех акциях, что стоят дешево по сравнению с фундаментальными показателями компаний на том основании, что они предлагают более выгодную защиту при повышении ставок и не являются перекупленными.
К стоимостным акциям относятся акции банков, которые показали с начала года лучшие результаты, и энергетический сектор — один из самых дешевых секторов. При этом сырьевые товары также предлагают потенциальную защиту от падения фондового рынка в случае сохранения высокой инфляции.
В отношении внутренних акций Великобритании Barclays снизил их ценность из-за ряда проблем: дефицита предложения, ослабления государственных стимулов и перспективы повышения ставки Банком Англии, отметив избыточный вес акций компаний Германии и Италии, поскольку экономика этих стран восстанавливается, а Европейский центральный банк сохраняет свою аккомодационную политику.
«Итальянские акции выглядят дешевыми и имеют более сильный импульс роста, чем акции Испании. Мы позитивно оцениваем акции банков, которые имеют гораздо больший вес на периферии по сравнению с центром», — сказал Кау.
Но аналитики банка советуют не бояться инфляции и не прибегать к «убежищу» — покупке облигаций, а вместо этого воспользоваться спадом и покупать подешевевшие акции, которые, на их взгляд, более привлекательны, чем облигации.
Отметим, что в сентябре общеевропейский индекс STOXX 600 отметил 7-месячную прибыльную серию после того, как на мировом рынке сложился благоприятный фон для быстрого восстановления экономики на фоне беспрецедентных фискальных и монетарных стимулов.
В обновленной октябрьской стратегии, опубликованной в среду, аналитики Barclays предупредили, что зреет новый экономический цикл, соотношение цены к прибыли по акциям является высоким, а рост прибыли на акцию будет умеренным, в то время как центральные банки становятся все более «ястребиными» в своем настрое. При этом приток средств в управляющие активами фонды в последнее время замедлился. При сокращении соотношения цены к прибыли будущая доходность снизится, по мнению банка, но все же останется положительной.
Глава подразделения европейской стратегии банка Эммануэль Кау заявил, что «по мере увеличения премии за риск доходность с поправкой на него будет снижаться. Тем не менее, мы по-прежнему считаем акции более привлекательными, чем облигации, и полагаем, что следует покупать на спаде».
Он также добавил, что корреляция между облигациями и акциями довольно большая, но при этом облигации кажутся более «оторванными» от фундаментальных экономических показателей, а следовательно, будут более уязвимы перед инфляцией и политическими рисками в четвертом квартале, к каковым относятся энергетический кризис в Европе, COVID-19, экономическая неопределенность в Китае и в отношении потолка госдолга в США.
Кау уверен, что у инвесторов по-прежнему есть порох в пороховницах, учитывая, что денежные рынки (то есть активы под управлением) составляют сегодня $4,5 трлн. Только акции являются тем классом активов, который приносит положительную реальную доходность и имеет тенденцию оставаться на плаву в условиях более высокой инфляции, добавил он.
Говоря конкретно о направлениях для инвестиций, аналитики банка отдают предпочтение европейским акциям, так как они эффективнее высоко оцененных американских. В частности, Кау и его команда сосредотачивают внимание на тех акциях, что стоят дешево по сравнению с фундаментальными показателями компаний на том основании, что они предлагают более выгодную защиту при повышении ставок и не являются перекупленными.
К стоимостным акциям относятся акции банков, которые показали с начала года лучшие результаты, и энергетический сектор — один из самых дешевых секторов. При этом сырьевые товары также предлагают потенциальную защиту от падения фондового рынка в случае сохранения высокой инфляции.
В отношении внутренних акций Великобритании Barclays снизил их ценность из-за ряда проблем: дефицита предложения, ослабления государственных стимулов и перспективы повышения ставки Банком Англии, отметив избыточный вес акций компаний Германии и Италии, поскольку экономика этих стран восстанавливается, а Европейский центральный банк сохраняет свою аккомодационную политику.
«Итальянские акции выглядят дешевыми и имеют более сильный импульс роста, чем акции Испании. Мы позитивно оцениваем акции банков, которые имеют гораздо больший вес на периферии по сравнению с центром», — сказал Кау.
The company raised the recent funds from Advent International and Viking Global Investors.To get more news about aafx/WikiFX Verification, you can visit wikifx.com official website.
Global Processing Services (GPS), one of the prominent international payment technology platforms, announced yesterday that the company has secured over $300 million in funding to accelerate its technology development and international expansion.
In an official announcement, GPS mentioned that the company has raised the funds from Advent International and Viking Global Investors. In October 2020, Visa, the US-based financial services giant, announced an investment in GPS.
Through the latest funds, GPS is planning to expand its presence across different regions including Europe, Asia-Pacific, and the Middle East. The company aims to accelerate its product innovation to meet the growing demand.
“GPS provides key payments technology infrastructure, enabling the global fintech revolution. Their agile, resilient, and modern cloud platform drives some of the most innovative use cases and allows fintech companies to globalize through a single API,” commented Peter James, Director at Advent International.
According to GPS, the global API-first payment technology platform of the company powers the worlds leading financial technology platforms, including Revolut, Curve, Starling Bank, Zilch, WeLab Bank, and Paidy. Its platform has facilitated several unicorns across Europe, the Middle East, and Asia-Pacific.
Global Fintech Sector
The global financial technology sector attracted record investment during the first half of 2021. Leading payment technology firms also raised significant funding during H1 2021. In the recent announcement, GPS mentioned that the company is simplifying access to the global digital payment ecosystem. “We are delighted to partner with Advent and Viking, with their deep experience and track record in payments and fintech, and, who share our bold vision for the next generation of global payments,” said Joanne Dewar, Chief Executive Officer at GPS.
“GPS has been at the heart of the global fintech explosion, simplifying access to the global rails of the new digital payments era. This investment will allow us to turbocharge our geographic footprint and product expansion plans as we drive the payments ecosystem in the key verticals of today and tomorrow, including digital banking, Buy Now Pay Later, B2B virtual cards, financial empowerment, and much more,” Dewar added.
Global Processing Services (GPS), one of the prominent international payment technology platforms, announced yesterday that the company has secured over $300 million in funding to accelerate its technology development and international expansion.
In an official announcement, GPS mentioned that the company has raised the funds from Advent International and Viking Global Investors. In October 2020, Visa, the US-based financial services giant, announced an investment in GPS.
Through the latest funds, GPS is planning to expand its presence across different regions including Europe, Asia-Pacific, and the Middle East. The company aims to accelerate its product innovation to meet the growing demand.
“GPS provides key payments technology infrastructure, enabling the global fintech revolution. Their agile, resilient, and modern cloud platform drives some of the most innovative use cases and allows fintech companies to globalize through a single API,” commented Peter James, Director at Advent International.
According to GPS, the global API-first payment technology platform of the company powers the worlds leading financial technology platforms, including Revolut, Curve, Starling Bank, Zilch, WeLab Bank, and Paidy. Its platform has facilitated several unicorns across Europe, the Middle East, and Asia-Pacific.
Global Fintech Sector
The global financial technology sector attracted record investment during the first half of 2021. Leading payment technology firms also raised significant funding during H1 2021. In the recent announcement, GPS mentioned that the company is simplifying access to the global digital payment ecosystem. “We are delighted to partner with Advent and Viking, with their deep experience and track record in payments and fintech, and, who share our bold vision for the next generation of global payments,” said Joanne Dewar, Chief Executive Officer at GPS.
“GPS has been at the heart of the global fintech explosion, simplifying access to the global rails of the new digital payments era. This investment will allow us to turbocharge our geographic footprint and product expansion plans as we drive the payments ecosystem in the key verticals of today and tomorrow, including digital banking, Buy Now Pay Later, B2B virtual cards, financial empowerment, and much more,” Dewar added.
The Forex Market is a global financial community where money is taken away from the curious and undisciplined traders and handed over to the disciplined and patient traders. This is called the art of marking smart money. To remain profitable in the forex market, every trader must understand the factors that move the market, popularly known as Fundamental and Technical analysis. News and previous price actions constitute the meaning of these two respectively; and the duo synchronistically move the market in the most significant ways.To get more news about FXCM, you can visit wikifx.com official website.
What is Forex Trading？
The word Forex is an acronym for Foreign exchange. Forex Trading offers investors and travellers the opportunity to safeguard their accumulated wealth against devaluation and inflations. The Forex Market is therefore a global market where a particular currency pair is bought against a perceived weakening currency inorder to profit from the weakness of the opposite pair. Forex is the safest way to safeguard one's money against inflations and hiking.
What is Forex Analysis？
Forex Analysis is a systematic study of the market movement pattern by investors as to determine which pair of currency to either buy or sell. It is the process of decision making on which position to take in the market as to make profits.
Often these analysis could be technical in natur; using resources such as charting tools or can be fundamental in nature, using economic indicators and/or news-based events.
Types of Forex Market Analysis
There are basically two ways of analyzing the Forex Market called the Technical and Fundamental Analysis. These two offer seasoned guide on the possible direction to expect in the market.
A. Fundamental Analysis:
Fundamental Analysis is otherwise known as daily news and events that move a particular currency so much. Such movement could either be positive or negative and moves the market in either way. Fundamental analysis is often used to analyze changes in the forex market by monitoring figures, such as interest rates, unemployment rates, gross domestic product (GDP), and other types of economic data that come out of countries. Other events such as politics, crisis situation and upheavals greatly affect the value of a Country's currency and investors always paid attention to these events in deciding which currency to either buy or sell.
B.Technical Analysis:
This is the study of previous price movement patterns in deciding which direction the market will follow at each point in time. The major assumption here is that the market having moved severally in a particular way under different conditions, is most likely to repeat same movement when given a similar conditions. Hence, technical analysis comes in the form of both manual and automated systems.
Understanding Forex Market Analysis:
It's important to think critically about the tenets of forex market analysis. Here is a four-step factors to always consider.
1. Understand the Drivers.
The art of successful trading is partly due to an understanding of the current relationships between markets and the reasons that these relationships exist. It is important to get a sense of causation, remembering that these relationships can and do change over time. A lot of factors especially those we have mentioned above move the market. Therefore the first questions to ask are: Why are these things happening？ What are the drivers behind the market actions？ What effects will they have on the market.
2. Chart the Indexes
It is helpful for a trader to chart the important indexes for each market for a longer time frame. This exercise can help a trader to determine relationships between markets and whether a movement in one market is inverse or in concert with the other. Longer time frames as Daily, weekly and monthly are most suitable in analyzing the market.
3. Market Sentiments
The way traders have reacted to a particular event or news in the past often determined their future reaction to it. Therefore it is very important to understand how the general traders feel over a particular Economic event.
4. Time the Trades:
Every trader must be careful to enter the market at the most rife moment to avoid losses. Often strong Support and Resistance points have remained the most profitable region for entering the market. There is a much higher chance of a successful trade if one can find turning points on the longer timeframes, then switch down to a shorter time period to find a better entry.
What is Forex Trading？
The word Forex is an acronym for Foreign exchange. Forex Trading offers investors and travellers the opportunity to safeguard their accumulated wealth against devaluation and inflations. The Forex Market is therefore a global market where a particular currency pair is bought against a perceived weakening currency inorder to profit from the weakness of the opposite pair. Forex is the safest way to safeguard one's money against inflations and hiking.
What is Forex Analysis？
Forex Analysis is a systematic study of the market movement pattern by investors as to determine which pair of currency to either buy or sell. It is the process of decision making on which position to take in the market as to make profits.
Often these analysis could be technical in natur; using resources such as charting tools or can be fundamental in nature, using economic indicators and/or news-based events.
Types of Forex Market Analysis
There are basically two ways of analyzing the Forex Market called the Technical and Fundamental Analysis. These two offer seasoned guide on the possible direction to expect in the market.
A. Fundamental Analysis:
Fundamental Analysis is otherwise known as daily news and events that move a particular currency so much. Such movement could either be positive or negative and moves the market in either way. Fundamental analysis is often used to analyze changes in the forex market by monitoring figures, such as interest rates, unemployment rates, gross domestic product (GDP), and other types of economic data that come out of countries. Other events such as politics, crisis situation and upheavals greatly affect the value of a Country's currency and investors always paid attention to these events in deciding which currency to either buy or sell.
B.Technical Analysis:
This is the study of previous price movement patterns in deciding which direction the market will follow at each point in time. The major assumption here is that the market having moved severally in a particular way under different conditions, is most likely to repeat same movement when given a similar conditions. Hence, technical analysis comes in the form of both manual and automated systems.
Understanding Forex Market Analysis:
It's important to think critically about the tenets of forex market analysis. Here is a four-step factors to always consider.
1. Understand the Drivers.
The art of successful trading is partly due to an understanding of the current relationships between markets and the reasons that these relationships exist. It is important to get a sense of causation, remembering that these relationships can and do change over time. A lot of factors especially those we have mentioned above move the market. Therefore the first questions to ask are: Why are these things happening？ What are the drivers behind the market actions？ What effects will they have on the market.
2. Chart the Indexes
It is helpful for a trader to chart the important indexes for each market for a longer time frame. This exercise can help a trader to determine relationships between markets and whether a movement in one market is inverse or in concert with the other. Longer time frames as Daily, weekly and monthly are most suitable in analyzing the market.
3. Market Sentiments
The way traders have reacted to a particular event or news in the past often determined their future reaction to it. Therefore it is very important to understand how the general traders feel over a particular Economic event.
4. Time the Trades:
Every trader must be careful to enter the market at the most rife moment to avoid losses. Often strong Support and Resistance points have remained the most profitable region for entering the market. There is a much higher chance of a successful trade if one can find turning points on the longer timeframes, then switch down to a shorter time period to find a better entry.
今週の月曜日からずっとレンジ相場が続いてい� �す。240移動平均線を上回っていますが、1800台にも突入� ��きず、1750～1770のレンジ相場です。To get more news about xauusd, you can visit wikifx.com official website.
240移動平均線がサポートラインとして機能していま� �。おそらく、本日の雇用統計次第で、方向が決まって� �るでしょう。
雇用統計の結果が予想を下回れば、金価格は上� �する展開になる可能性があります。1796が目安です。
日足チャートを見ると、200移動平均線がレジスタン� �ラインになっていることが分析できます。200移動平均� �は1796近辺にあるため、金価格が上昇するとしても、1796 で反発する可能性が極めて高いと推測できるでしょう。
ボリンジャーバンドのミドルバンドを上回って� �値を迎えれば、上昇基調に戻っていくかもしれません� �
一方、雇用統計が予想を上回って株式市場が上� �すれば、金価格は短期的には下落基調に戻っていくの� �はないかとも考えています。日足チャートのRSIを分析� �ると、50で反発し、RSI数値が下落しています。
本日発表の雇用統計に注目しましょう。
今週もお疲れ様でした。どうぞ良い週末をお過� �しください。
【注意事項】
※全ての情報は、私が独自に判断しているもの� �あり、あくまでも情報提供が目的です。投資判断の全� �の責任は、トレーダーにあります。レポート著者を含� �、WikiFXは一切の責任を負いません。
240移動平均線がサポートラインとして機能していま� �。おそらく、本日の雇用統計次第で、方向が決まって� �るでしょう。
雇用統計の結果が予想を下回れば、金価格は上� �する展開になる可能性があります。1796が目安です。
日足チャートを見ると、200移動平均線がレジスタン� �ラインになっていることが分析できます。200移動平均� �は1796近辺にあるため、金価格が上昇するとしても、1796 で反発する可能性が極めて高いと推測できるでしょう。
ボリンジャーバンドのミドルバンドを上回って� �値を迎えれば、上昇基調に戻っていくかもしれません� �
一方、雇用統計が予想を上回って株式市場が上� �すれば、金価格は短期的には下落基調に戻っていくの� �はないかとも考えています。日足チャートのRSIを分析� �ると、50で反発し、RSI数値が下落しています。
本日発表の雇用統計に注目しましょう。
今週もお疲れ様でした。どうぞ良い週末をお過� �しください。
【注意事項】
※全ての情報は、私が独自に判断しているもの� �あり、あくまでも情報提供が目的です。投資判断の全� �の責任は、トレーダーにあります。レポート著者を含� �、WikiFXは一切の責任を負いません。
Dolar Amerika Serikat naik terhadap mata uang berimbal hasil tinggi tetapi beranjak turun terhadap euro dan sterling pada hari Senin setelah laporan pekerjaan AS hari Jumat lalu meninggalkan ruang ketidakpastian signifikan mengenai kapan Federal Reserve kemungkinan mulai menaikkan suku bunga.To get more news about ids international, you can visit wikifx.com official website.
Laporan angka pekerjaan AS tersebut adalah yang terlemah tahun ini, hanya mencapai 194.000 pekerjaan nonpertanian yang ditambahkan, jauh dari perkiraan konsensus. Perubahan peningkatan yang besar pada data Agustus sedikit mengurangi kekecewaan, tetapi pendapatan rata-rata berada di atas ekspektasi, meningkatkan kekhawatiran bahwa inflasi dapat menguat pada saat yang sama seiring melambatnya pertumbuhan imbas masalah di rantai pasokan global dan pasar tenaga kerja lokal. Namun, angka-angka tersebut tidak menunjukkan bahwa Fed tidak akan mulai mengurangi pembelian obligasi bulan depan.
Pada pukul 14.23 WIB, Indeks Dolar AS menguat tipis 0,02% di 94,097 menurut data Investing.com setelah gagal melewati level tertinggi September sebagai respons terhadap laporan pekerjaan pada hari Jumat. Dolar AS menguat 0,52% terhadap yen, dan 0,05% terhadap dolar Selandia Baru, didukung oleh harga komoditas global yang tinggi yang membutuhkan dolar AS untuk penyelesaian perdagangan.
Namun, dolar AS melemah terhadap pound, GBPUSD naik 0,29% di 1,3650 setelah komentar dari dua pejabat senior Bank of England - termasuk Gubernur Andrew Bailey - pada akhir pekan, yang mengisyaratkan dengan sangat jelas bahwa bank sentral ini sedang mencari cara untuk menaikkan suku bunga dalam waktu dekat. Ekspektasi inflasi telah meningkat menjadi lebih dari 4% dalam lima tahun di Inggris, sebuah negara yang masih lebih terluka daripada kebanyakan kenangan stagflasi di tahun 1970-an.
Bailey mengatakan kepada Yorkshire Post dalam wawancara bahwa “jelas” ia “khawatir” pada inflasi di atas target, menambahkan bahwa: “Kami akan memiliki pekerjaan yang sangat rumit dan menantang di tangan kami sehingga kami harus mencegahnya menjadi tertanam secara permanen karena itu jelas akan sangat merusak.”
Sementara itu, rekannya Michael Saunders, mengatakan kepada Sunday Telegraph bahwa Inggris harus bersiap untuk kenaikan suku bunga “secara signifikan lebih awal”. Suku bunga utama Bank telah ditetapkan sebesar 0,1% sejak awal pandemi.
Sterling naik 0,4% ke level tertinggi tiga bulan di 1,1804 melawan euro dan naik 0,4% terhadap dolar ke level tertinggi satu bulan di $1,3664 pada saat ditulis pukul 3:10 AM ET (0710 GMT). Sedangkan rupiah lanjut menguat 0,09% di 14.207,5 per dolar AS hingga pukul 14.29 WIB.
Mata uang bertema minyak melanjutkan pergerakan kuatnya lantaran harga minyak mentah bertahan jauh di atas $80 per barel selama akhir pekan. Rubel Rusia menguji level tertinggi 14 bulan terhadap dolar di 71,6724, sementara dolar Kanada menguji level tertinggi dua bulan setelah membukukan laporan pasar tenaga kerja yang jauh lebih kuat pada hari Jumat. Kanada menambahkan 157.000 pekerjaan pada bulan September dan sekarang telah menggantikan semua pekerjaan yang hilang pada awal pandemi.
Pasar AS akan sedikit menipis oleh libur Hari Columbus di AS, sementara pidato dari kepala ekonom European Central Bank (ECB) Philip Lane dan Frank Elderson akan dipantau untuk mencari tanda-tanda bahwa ECB - semakin menjadi berbeda terhadap tren global pengetatan moneter - mulai bereaksi terhadap tekanan inflasi yang lebih tinggi.
Laporan angka pekerjaan AS tersebut adalah yang terlemah tahun ini, hanya mencapai 194.000 pekerjaan nonpertanian yang ditambahkan, jauh dari perkiraan konsensus. Perubahan peningkatan yang besar pada data Agustus sedikit mengurangi kekecewaan, tetapi pendapatan rata-rata berada di atas ekspektasi, meningkatkan kekhawatiran bahwa inflasi dapat menguat pada saat yang sama seiring melambatnya pertumbuhan imbas masalah di rantai pasokan global dan pasar tenaga kerja lokal. Namun, angka-angka tersebut tidak menunjukkan bahwa Fed tidak akan mulai mengurangi pembelian obligasi bulan depan.
Pada pukul 14.23 WIB, Indeks Dolar AS menguat tipis 0,02% di 94,097 menurut data Investing.com setelah gagal melewati level tertinggi September sebagai respons terhadap laporan pekerjaan pada hari Jumat. Dolar AS menguat 0,52% terhadap yen, dan 0,05% terhadap dolar Selandia Baru, didukung oleh harga komoditas global yang tinggi yang membutuhkan dolar AS untuk penyelesaian perdagangan.
Namun, dolar AS melemah terhadap pound, GBPUSD naik 0,29% di 1,3650 setelah komentar dari dua pejabat senior Bank of England - termasuk Gubernur Andrew Bailey - pada akhir pekan, yang mengisyaratkan dengan sangat jelas bahwa bank sentral ini sedang mencari cara untuk menaikkan suku bunga dalam waktu dekat. Ekspektasi inflasi telah meningkat menjadi lebih dari 4% dalam lima tahun di Inggris, sebuah negara yang masih lebih terluka daripada kebanyakan kenangan stagflasi di tahun 1970-an.
Bailey mengatakan kepada Yorkshire Post dalam wawancara bahwa “jelas” ia “khawatir” pada inflasi di atas target, menambahkan bahwa: “Kami akan memiliki pekerjaan yang sangat rumit dan menantang di tangan kami sehingga kami harus mencegahnya menjadi tertanam secara permanen karena itu jelas akan sangat merusak.”
Sementara itu, rekannya Michael Saunders, mengatakan kepada Sunday Telegraph bahwa Inggris harus bersiap untuk kenaikan suku bunga “secara signifikan lebih awal”. Suku bunga utama Bank telah ditetapkan sebesar 0,1% sejak awal pandemi.
Sterling naik 0,4% ke level tertinggi tiga bulan di 1,1804 melawan euro dan naik 0,4% terhadap dolar ke level tertinggi satu bulan di $1,3664 pada saat ditulis pukul 3:10 AM ET (0710 GMT). Sedangkan rupiah lanjut menguat 0,09% di 14.207,5 per dolar AS hingga pukul 14.29 WIB.
Mata uang bertema minyak melanjutkan pergerakan kuatnya lantaran harga minyak mentah bertahan jauh di atas $80 per barel selama akhir pekan. Rubel Rusia menguji level tertinggi 14 bulan terhadap dolar di 71,6724, sementara dolar Kanada menguji level tertinggi dua bulan setelah membukukan laporan pasar tenaga kerja yang jauh lebih kuat pada hari Jumat. Kanada menambahkan 157.000 pekerjaan pada bulan September dan sekarang telah menggantikan semua pekerjaan yang hilang pada awal pandemi.
Pasar AS akan sedikit menipis oleh libur Hari Columbus di AS, sementara pidato dari kepala ekonom European Central Bank (ECB) Philip Lane dan Frank Elderson akan dipantau untuk mencari tanda-tanda bahwa ECB - semakin menjadi berbeda terhadap tren global pengetatan moneter - mulai bereaksi terhadap tekanan inflasi yang lebih tinggi.
Mô hình Cá mập là mô hình giá hình thành trước xu hướng đảo chiều, là một trong những mô hình Harmonic mới được Scott Carney phát hiện vào năm 2011 nhưng đã được áp dụng rộng rãi trong giao dịch. Mô hình Cá mập có các đường dốc bên ngoài và phần lõm nông ở giữa tạo thành một biểu đồ trông giống như một chiếc vây lưng cá mập.To get more news about shark pattern harmonic, you can visit wikifx.com official website.
Trong các mô hình Harmonic WikiFX đã đăng tải bao gồm các mô hình Gartley, Con dơi, Con cua, Con bướm thì đỉnh thứ hai trong mô hình giá tăng và đáy thứ hai trong mô hình giá giảm giá luôn thấp/cao hơn mô hình đầu tiên. Tuy nhiên, trong mô hình Cá mập giá tăng, đỉnh thứ hai lại cao hơn đỉnh thứ nhất. Hơn hết, mô hình Cá mập có tỷ lệ 113% khi kết hợp Fibonacci với lý thuyết sóng Elliott
Cách nhận biết mô hình Cá mập (Shark Pattern)
Mô hình Shark bao gồm năm điểm: 0, X, A, B, C. Ngoài ra, điểm kết thúc của chân B kết thúc trên sóng X. Nó kéo dài đến mức tối thiểu là 1,13 và tối đa là 1,618 tỷ lệ Fibonacci.
Một mô hình Cá mập cần phải đáp ứng ba quy tắc sau:
AB = đường lui giữa 1,13 - 1,618 FE của chân XA
BC = kéo dài đến 113% FE của chân 0X
CD = Đặt mục tiêu là 50% FR đoạn BC
Các loại mô hình Cá mập (Shark Pattern)
1. Mô hình Cá mập tăng giá (Bullish Shark Pattern)
Xác định trên biểu đồ điểm bắt đầu 0, có thể là bất kỳ điểm dao động cao hoặc thấp nào trên biểu đồ.
Khi nhà đầu tư đã xác định được điểm cao/thấp đầu tiên của mình, nhà đầu tư chỉ cần theo dõi các chuyển động của sóng dao động thị trường.
Nhà đầu tư cần có 4 điểm hoặc 4 điểm cao/thấp liên kết với nhau và tạo thành chiến lược mô hình Con cua hài hòa. Mỗi chân xoay phải được xác nhận và tuân theo tỷ lệ Fibonacci ngoại hối của mô hình Cá mập.
2. Mua tại Điểm D, điểm này phải thỏa mãn yêu cầu CD=1,13 của chân OX
Mức thoái lui D đến X có thể nằm trong khoảng 0,886 - 1,13. Nhưng nhà đầu tư nên thực hiện các giao dịch bằng cách sử dụng phần mở rộng 1.13 là lý tưởng nhất.
Mô hình Cá mập có một số đặc điểm chung với mô hình Con cua vì sóng D là một chuyển động giá mạnh vì cả 2 mô hình đều là mô hình Harmonic.
3. Đặt Stop loss (Dừng lỗ)
Mức stop loss (dừng lỗ) ban đầu nên ở mức 1.150 Fibonacci mở rộng của XA và khi thị trường bắt đầu di chuyển về mức giá chốt lời đầu tiên của chúng tôi, nó sẽ được di chuyển khi kết thúc chặng D.
Đó là nơi hợp lý để ẩn lệnh cắt lỗ của nhà đầu tư bởi vì bất kỳ sự phá vỡ nào bên dưới sẽ tự động làm mất hiệu lực của các yêu cầu Fibonacci đối với mô hình Cá mập.
Ưu điểm lớn nhất của giao dịch theo mô hình Cá mập là yêu cầu sử dụng lệnh cắt lỗ rất chặt chẽ, giúp các nhà đầu tư muốn giảm thiểu thua lỗ và tối đa hóa lợi nhuận.
4. Take profit (Chốt lời) nhiều lần: TP1 = 50% CD Fibonacci thoái lui; TP2 = C đu lên cao.
Do sự phức tạp và cấu trúc giá của mô hình Cá mập, chúng ta sẽ có hai vùng chốt lời.
· Đầu tiên, Vùng TP nằm ở chân xoay của CD thoái lui Fibonacci 50% và mức thoái lui 100% đối với TP thứ hai.
· Lý do sử dụng hai vùng TP là vì về bản chất, mô hình Cá mập có thể hình thành mô hình 5-0 và khi đạt đến điểm D, nó có thể đảo ngược. Tuy nhiên, mô hình Cá mập có thể là một mô hình đảo chiều. và đó là lý do tại sao chúng tôi đang sử dụng làm mục tiêu thứ hai là tỷ lệ Fibonacci 100%.
Trong các mô hình Harmonic WikiFX đã đăng tải bao gồm các mô hình Gartley, Con dơi, Con cua, Con bướm thì đỉnh thứ hai trong mô hình giá tăng và đáy thứ hai trong mô hình giá giảm giá luôn thấp/cao hơn mô hình đầu tiên. Tuy nhiên, trong mô hình Cá mập giá tăng, đỉnh thứ hai lại cao hơn đỉnh thứ nhất. Hơn hết, mô hình Cá mập có tỷ lệ 113% khi kết hợp Fibonacci với lý thuyết sóng Elliott
Cách nhận biết mô hình Cá mập (Shark Pattern)
Mô hình Shark bao gồm năm điểm: 0, X, A, B, C. Ngoài ra, điểm kết thúc của chân B kết thúc trên sóng X. Nó kéo dài đến mức tối thiểu là 1,13 và tối đa là 1,618 tỷ lệ Fibonacci.
Một mô hình Cá mập cần phải đáp ứng ba quy tắc sau:
AB = đường lui giữa 1,13 - 1,618 FE của chân XA
BC = kéo dài đến 113% FE của chân 0X
CD = Đặt mục tiêu là 50% FR đoạn BC
Các loại mô hình Cá mập (Shark Pattern)
1. Mô hình Cá mập tăng giá (Bullish Shark Pattern)
Xác định trên biểu đồ điểm bắt đầu 0, có thể là bất kỳ điểm dao động cao hoặc thấp nào trên biểu đồ.
Khi nhà đầu tư đã xác định được điểm cao/thấp đầu tiên của mình, nhà đầu tư chỉ cần theo dõi các chuyển động của sóng dao động thị trường.
Nhà đầu tư cần có 4 điểm hoặc 4 điểm cao/thấp liên kết với nhau và tạo thành chiến lược mô hình Con cua hài hòa. Mỗi chân xoay phải được xác nhận và tuân theo tỷ lệ Fibonacci ngoại hối của mô hình Cá mập.
2. Mua tại Điểm D, điểm này phải thỏa mãn yêu cầu CD=1,13 của chân OX
Mức thoái lui D đến X có thể nằm trong khoảng 0,886 - 1,13. Nhưng nhà đầu tư nên thực hiện các giao dịch bằng cách sử dụng phần mở rộng 1.13 là lý tưởng nhất.
Mô hình Cá mập có một số đặc điểm chung với mô hình Con cua vì sóng D là một chuyển động giá mạnh vì cả 2 mô hình đều là mô hình Harmonic.
3. Đặt Stop loss (Dừng lỗ)
Mức stop loss (dừng lỗ) ban đầu nên ở mức 1.150 Fibonacci mở rộng của XA và khi thị trường bắt đầu di chuyển về mức giá chốt lời đầu tiên của chúng tôi, nó sẽ được di chuyển khi kết thúc chặng D.
Đó là nơi hợp lý để ẩn lệnh cắt lỗ của nhà đầu tư bởi vì bất kỳ sự phá vỡ nào bên dưới sẽ tự động làm mất hiệu lực của các yêu cầu Fibonacci đối với mô hình Cá mập.
Ưu điểm lớn nhất của giao dịch theo mô hình Cá mập là yêu cầu sử dụng lệnh cắt lỗ rất chặt chẽ, giúp các nhà đầu tư muốn giảm thiểu thua lỗ và tối đa hóa lợi nhuận.
4. Take profit (Chốt lời) nhiều lần: TP1 = 50% CD Fibonacci thoái lui; TP2 = C đu lên cao.
Do sự phức tạp và cấu trúc giá của mô hình Cá mập, chúng ta sẽ có hai vùng chốt lời.
· Đầu tiên, Vùng TP nằm ở chân xoay của CD thoái lui Fibonacci 50% và mức thoái lui 100% đối với TP thứ hai.
· Lý do sử dụng hai vùng TP là vì về bản chất, mô hình Cá mập có thể hình thành mô hình 5-0 và khi đạt đến điểm D, nó có thể đảo ngược. Tuy nhiên, mô hình Cá mập có thể là một mô hình đảo chiều. và đó là lý do tại sao chúng tôi đang sử dụng làm mục tiêu thứ hai là tỷ lệ Fibonacci 100%.
Gold was down on Friday morning in Asia, but was set for its best week in more than five months. Declines in both the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields also capped the yellow metals losses even as the U.S. Federal Reserve prepares to begin asset tapering.To get more news about forexklab, you can visit wikifx.com official website.
Gold futures edged down 0.11% to $1,795.95 by 11:55 PM ET (3:55 AM GMT), after hitting a one-month high of $1,800.12 on Thursday. It is up 2.1% for the week so far. The dollar, which normally moves inversely to gold, inched up on Friday.
Although the recovery in the U.S. job market is widely viewed as sufficient for the Fed to begin tapering as planned in November 2021, divisions remain even among the central banks officials.
Global policymakers should continue to monitor pricing dynamics closely, but also “look through” inflationary pressures that are transitory and will fade as economies normalize, the International Monetary Funds steering committee said on Thursday.
U.S. data released on Thursday showed that the producer price index rose 0.5% month-on-month in September, and a lower-than-expected 293,000 initial jobless claims were filed throughout the week. Further data, including retail sales as well as the University of Michigan consumer sentiment and Michigan consumer expectations indexes, will be released later in the day.
Meanwhile, miner Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE:GOLD) on Thursday reported a nearly 5% rise in third-quarter gold production from the previous three months, thanks to increased output at its Veladero mine in Argentina.
In other precious metals, silver fell 0.4% to $23.45 per ounce but set for its biggest weekly gain in seven. Platinum eased 0.1% to $1,054.09, after hitting its highest level since Aug. 2 at $1,062.50 on Thursday, while palladium edged up 0.2%.
It‘s been previously discussed that October tends to be a bullish month for gold prices, typically as risk appetite wanes in other parts of financial markets. But this October, there’s much ado about nothing – so far. Gold prices traded up near 1760 on October 1, and since then, have spent every day trading right around 1760.To get more news about exness broker, you can visit wikifx.com official website.
Now that the US debt ceiling debate has been kicked down the road to December, and fears around China‘s property market are simmering – some days bring worse news than others, but nothing too significant yet – there aren’t many viable catalysts for a significant gold price rally on the horizon. And with the fact remaining that the FOMC continues to offer clear signals that tapering is arriving soon, gold prices still have considerable fundamental headwinds working against them.
Historically, gold prices have a relationship with volatility unlike other asset classes. While other asset classes like bonds and stocks don‘t like increased volatility – signaling greater uncertainty around cash flows, dividends, coupon payments, etc. – gold tends to benefit during periods of higher volatility. Recent signs of falling gold volatility aren’t a good omen for gold prices.
Gold volatility (as measured by the Cboes gold volatility ETF, GVZ, which tracks the 1-month implied volatility of gold as derived from the GLD option chain) was trading at 16.52. The relationship between gold prices and gold volatility is normalizing, insofar as the 5-day correlation is becoming less positive this week while the 20-day correlation remains in negative territory. The 5-day correlation between GVZ and gold prices is +0.42 while the 20-day correlation is -0.46. One week ago, on October 5, the 5-day correlation was -0.70 and the 20-day correlation was -0.84.
Gold prices‘ technical structure on the weekly timeframe remains weak in spite of the recent rebound on lower timeframes. The weekly 4-, 13-, and 26-EMA envelope’s negative slope remains in place, while weekly MACD continues to drop further below its signal line. Weekly Slow Stochastics are holding at the median line, however. For now, the outlook persists that “selling the rally may be the modus operandi henceforth.
Now that the US debt ceiling debate has been kicked down the road to December, and fears around China‘s property market are simmering – some days bring worse news than others, but nothing too significant yet – there aren’t many viable catalysts for a significant gold price rally on the horizon. And with the fact remaining that the FOMC continues to offer clear signals that tapering is arriving soon, gold prices still have considerable fundamental headwinds working against them.
Historically, gold prices have a relationship with volatility unlike other asset classes. While other asset classes like bonds and stocks don‘t like increased volatility – signaling greater uncertainty around cash flows, dividends, coupon payments, etc. – gold tends to benefit during periods of higher volatility. Recent signs of falling gold volatility aren’t a good omen for gold prices.
Gold volatility (as measured by the Cboes gold volatility ETF, GVZ, which tracks the 1-month implied volatility of gold as derived from the GLD option chain) was trading at 16.52. The relationship between gold prices and gold volatility is normalizing, insofar as the 5-day correlation is becoming less positive this week while the 20-day correlation remains in negative territory. The 5-day correlation between GVZ and gold prices is +0.42 while the 20-day correlation is -0.46. One week ago, on October 5, the 5-day correlation was -0.70 and the 20-day correlation was -0.84.
Gold prices‘ technical structure on the weekly timeframe remains weak in spite of the recent rebound on lower timeframes. The weekly 4-, 13-, and 26-EMA envelope’s negative slope remains in place, while weekly MACD continues to drop further below its signal line. Weekly Slow Stochastics are holding at the median line, however. For now, the outlook persists that “selling the rally may be the modus operandi henceforth.
Against the backdrop of eroding fundamentals, markets become increasingly sensitive to political risks as their capacity for inducing market-wide volatility is amplified. When liberal-oriented ideologies – that is, those favoring free trade and integrated capital markets – are being assaulted on a global scale by nationalist and populist movements, uncertainty-driven volatility is the frequent result.To get more news about liteforex, you can visit wikifx.com official website.
What makes political risk so dangerous and elusive is the limited ability investors have for pricing it in. Traders may therefore find themselves hot under the collar as the global political landscape continues to develop unpredictably. Furthermore, much like the spread of the coronavirus in 2020, political pathogens can have a similar contagion effect.
Generally speaking, markets do not really care about political categorizations but are more concerned with the economic policies embedded in the agenda of whoever holds the reigns of the sovereign. Policies that stimulate economic growth typically act as a magnet for investors looking to park capital where it will garner the highest yield.
These include the implementation of fiscal stimulus plans, fortifying property rights, allowing for goods and capital to flow freely and dissolving growth-sapping regulations. If these policies create adequate inflationary pressure, the central bank may raise interest rates in response. That boosts the underlying return on local assets, reeling in investors and lifting the currency.
Conversely, a government whose underlying ideological predilections go against the gradient of globalization may cause capital flight. Regimes that seek to rip out the threads that have sown economic and political integration usually create a moat of uncertainty that investors do not want to traverse. Themes of ultra-nationalism, protectionism and populism have been frequently shown to have market-disrupting effects.
If a state undergoes an ideological realignment,traders will assess the situation to see if it radically alters their risk-reward set up. If so, they may then reallocate their capital and re-formulate their trading strategies to tilt the balance of risk to reward in their favor. Volatility is stoked in doing so however as reformulated trading strategies are reflected in the market-wide redistribution of capital across various assets.
EUROPE: EUROSCEPTIC POPULISM IN ITALY
In Italy, the 2018 election roiled regional markets and eventually rippled through virtually the entire financial system. The ascendancy of the anti-establishment right-wing Lega Nord and ideologically-ambivalent 5 Star Movement was founded on a campaign of populism with a built-in rejection of the status quo. The uncertainty accompanying this new regime was then promptly priced in and resulted in significantly volatility.
The risk premium for holding Italys assets rose and was reflected in an over-100 percent spike in Italian 10-year bond yields. That showed investors demanding a higher return for tolerating what they perceived to be a higher level of risk. This was also reflected in the dramatic widening of the spread on credit default swaps on Italian sovereign debt amid increased fears that Italy could be the epicenter of another EU debt crisis.
The US Dollar, Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc all gained at the expense of the Euro as investors redirected their capital to anti-risk assets. The Euro‘s suffering was prolonged by a dispute between Rome and Brussels over the former’s budgetary ambitions. The governments fiscal exceptionalism was a feature of their anti-establishment nature that in turn introduced greater uncertainty and was then reflected in a weaker Euro.
LATIN AMERICA: NATIONALIST-POPULISM IN BRAZIL
While President Jair Bolsonaro is generally characterized as a fire-brand nationalist with populist underpinnings, the market reaction to his ascendency was met with open arms by investors. His appointment of Paulo Guedes – a University of Chicago-trained economist with a penchant for privatization and regulatory restructuring – boosted sentiment and investors confidence in Brazilian assets.
From June 2018 to the Covid-19 global markets rout in early 2020, the benchmark Ibovespa equity index rose over 58 percent compared with a little over 17 percent in the S&P 500 over the same time period. During the election in October, the Brazilian index rose over 12 percent in just one month as polls revealed that Bolsonaro was going to triumph over his left-wing opponent Fernando Haddad.
Since Bolsonaro‘s ascent to the presidency, the ups and downs in Brazilian markets have reflected the level of progress on his market-disrupting pension reforms. Investors speculated that these structural adjustments will be strong enough to pull Brazil’s economy away from the precipice of a recession and toward a strong growth trajectory, unburdened by unsustainable public spending.
What makes political risk so dangerous and elusive is the limited ability investors have for pricing it in. Traders may therefore find themselves hot under the collar as the global political landscape continues to develop unpredictably. Furthermore, much like the spread of the coronavirus in 2020, political pathogens can have a similar contagion effect.
Generally speaking, markets do not really care about political categorizations but are more concerned with the economic policies embedded in the agenda of whoever holds the reigns of the sovereign. Policies that stimulate economic growth typically act as a magnet for investors looking to park capital where it will garner the highest yield.
These include the implementation of fiscal stimulus plans, fortifying property rights, allowing for goods and capital to flow freely and dissolving growth-sapping regulations. If these policies create adequate inflationary pressure, the central bank may raise interest rates in response. That boosts the underlying return on local assets, reeling in investors and lifting the currency.
Conversely, a government whose underlying ideological predilections go against the gradient of globalization may cause capital flight. Regimes that seek to rip out the threads that have sown economic and political integration usually create a moat of uncertainty that investors do not want to traverse. Themes of ultra-nationalism, protectionism and populism have been frequently shown to have market-disrupting effects.
If a state undergoes an ideological realignment,traders will assess the situation to see if it radically alters their risk-reward set up. If so, they may then reallocate their capital and re-formulate their trading strategies to tilt the balance of risk to reward in their favor. Volatility is stoked in doing so however as reformulated trading strategies are reflected in the market-wide redistribution of capital across various assets.
EUROPE: EUROSCEPTIC POPULISM IN ITALY
In Italy, the 2018 election roiled regional markets and eventually rippled through virtually the entire financial system. The ascendancy of the anti-establishment right-wing Lega Nord and ideologically-ambivalent 5 Star Movement was founded on a campaign of populism with a built-in rejection of the status quo. The uncertainty accompanying this new regime was then promptly priced in and resulted in significantly volatility.
The risk premium for holding Italys assets rose and was reflected in an over-100 percent spike in Italian 10-year bond yields. That showed investors demanding a higher return for tolerating what they perceived to be a higher level of risk. This was also reflected in the dramatic widening of the spread on credit default swaps on Italian sovereign debt amid increased fears that Italy could be the epicenter of another EU debt crisis.
The US Dollar, Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc all gained at the expense of the Euro as investors redirected their capital to anti-risk assets. The Euro‘s suffering was prolonged by a dispute between Rome and Brussels over the former’s budgetary ambitions. The governments fiscal exceptionalism was a feature of their anti-establishment nature that in turn introduced greater uncertainty and was then reflected in a weaker Euro.
LATIN AMERICA: NATIONALIST-POPULISM IN BRAZIL
While President Jair Bolsonaro is generally characterized as a fire-brand nationalist with populist underpinnings, the market reaction to his ascendency was met with open arms by investors. His appointment of Paulo Guedes – a University of Chicago-trained economist with a penchant for privatization and regulatory restructuring – boosted sentiment and investors confidence in Brazilian assets.
From June 2018 to the Covid-19 global markets rout in early 2020, the benchmark Ibovespa equity index rose over 58 percent compared with a little over 17 percent in the S&P 500 over the same time period. During the election in October, the Brazilian index rose over 12 percent in just one month as polls revealed that Bolsonaro was going to triumph over his left-wing opponent Fernando Haddad.
Since Bolsonaro‘s ascent to the presidency, the ups and downs in Brazilian markets have reflected the level of progress on his market-disrupting pension reforms. Investors speculated that these structural adjustments will be strong enough to pull Brazil’s economy away from the precipice of a recession and toward a strong growth trajectory, unburdened by unsustainable public spending.
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